نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه حسابداری، واحد تنکابن، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تنکابن، ایران.

2 گروه مدیریت مالی، واحد ملارد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ملارد، ایران.

چکیده

مقاله حاضر احتمال پیش‎بینی ورشکستگی شرکت‎ها با مدل‎های اسپرینگ، آلتمن، فولمر، زیمسکی و ژنتیک مک‌کی در بین شرکت‎های موجود در بورس تهران را به شکلی متفاوت نسبت به پژوهش‎های قبلی و با هدف معرفی شرکت‎هایی که احتمال ورشکستگی بالاتری با رویکرد مقایسه‎ای در بین مدل‎ها دارند مورد بررسی قرار داده است.برای دستیابی به این هدف 75 شرکت که مشمول ماده 141 قانون تجارت نیستند انتخاب گردید. داده‎های مورد نیاز برای دوره 10 ساله (86-95) جمع‎آوری شده است. با توجه به نتایج هر یک از مدل‎های فوق تعدادی شرکت به عنوان شرکت‎های با احتمال ورشکستگی بالا شناسایی شده و سپس شرکت‎هایی که در بیشتر این مدل‎ها به عنوان شرکت با احتمال ورشکسته معرفی شدند، تفکیک گردیدند. نتایج همچنین نشان می‎دهد که به استثنا مدل مک‎کی، در چهار مدل دیگر سه شرکت با احتمال ورشکستگی بالا قرار گرفتند و از بین این چهار مدل نیز، مدل زیمسکی ضریب تعیین بالاتری داشته، از این رو می‎توان گفت نسبت به سایر مدل‎ها جهت پیش‎بینی ورشکستگی دقت بیشتری داشته است و از بین نسبت‎های مالی، نسبت بدهی، گردش دارایی‎ها و بازده دارایی‎ها نقش مهمی در تعیین ورشکستگی شرکت‎ها دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction and Identification of Companies with High Bankruptcy probability in Tehran Stock Exchange (Different analysis of models)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Fakhreddin Fakhrehosseini 1
  • Omid Aghaei Meybodi 2

1 Department of Accounting, Tonekabon Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tonekabon, Iran.

2 Department of Accounting, Malard Branch, Islamic Azad University, Malard, Iran.

چکیده [English]

The present paper presents the possibility of predicting firms' bankruptcy with Sprint, Altman, Fulmer, Zmijewski and Mckee Genetic models among companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange in a different way from previous research to introduce companies which have the potential for higher bankruptcy with a comparative approach among the models. To achieve this goal, 75 companies that are selected not covered base on 141 of the Commercial law. Required data for the 10 years (86-95) has been compiled. According to the results in each of the above models, some companies were identified as high-risk probability companies, and then companies that were identified as most likely to be bankrupt in most of these models. The results also show that, with the exception of Mckee model, in four other models, three companies with high bankruptcy probability were included. Among these four models, Zmijewski model has a higher coefficient of determination, hence we can say that relative to Other models have been more accurately predicted for bankruptcy and have a significant role in corporate bankruptcy among financial ratios, debt ratios, asset turnover, and asset returns.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Prediction
  • Bankruptcy
  • Model
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