آینده‌پژوهی زنجیره تأمین صنعت نفت ایران با تأکید بر عوامل داخلی

محمودی شریف, مصطفی; رحیمیان اصل, محمد مهدی; ملکی, محمدحسن

doi:10.22105/dmor.2021.288357.1409

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران.

² مؤسسه عالی آموزش و پژوهش مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی (وابسته به نهاد ریاست جمهوری)، تهران، ایران.

https://doi.org/10.22105/dmor.2021.288357.1409

چکیده

هدف: زنجیره تأمین نقش مهمی در کارآمدی ارائه محصولات و خدمات دارد. این مقوله در صنعت نفت اهمیت بیشتری پیدا می‌کند که یکی از مزیت‌های رقابتی کشور هم به شمار می‌رود و توسعه آن می‌تواند برای اقتصاد کشور ارزآوری و اشتغال زیادی ایجاد نماید. لازمه سیاست‌گذاری و برنامه‌ریزی صحیح و اثربخش در این حوزه توجه به تغییرات و نیازهای آینده است.
روش‌شناسی پژوهش: پژوهش حاضر از نظر جهت‌گیری، کاربردی و از منظر هدف، اکتشافی است. همچنین از نظر مبانی فلسفی، عمل‌گرا و روش‌شناسی آن آمیخته است. برای اجرای پژوهش در مرحله اول از طریق مرور ادبیات و مصاحبه با خبرگان صنعت نفت، 16 پیشران‌ کلیدی پژوهش استخراج گردید. پس از غربال با آزمون‌های آماری، 8 عامل حذف گردید و مابقی با تکنیک تحلیل تأثیر متقابل مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفتند.
یافته‌ها: بر مبنای درجه تأثیرگذاری دو پیشران سیاست‌های تأمین مالی دولت و برنامه‌های شرکت‌های نفتی برای بهبود و به‌روزرسانی تجهیزات نفتی به‌عنوان پیشران‌های مهم برای نگاشت سناریوهای زنجیره تأمین صنعت نفت انتخاب شدند.
اصالت/ارزش افزوده علمی: بر مبنای این دو پیشران، چهار سناریو زنجیره تأمین فرصت سوز، زنجیره تأمین منبع محور، زنجیره تأمین نوین و زنجیره تأمین دمده نگاشت یافتند که با توجه به معیارهای چهارگانه ارزیابی سناریوها از نظر احتمال وقوع و کاربست تکنیک کداس، سناریو زنجیره تأمین فرصت سوز به‌عنوان محتمل‌ترین سناریو انتخاب گردید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

20.1001.1.25385097.1401.7.2.3.0

موضوعات

تصمیم گیری براساس محاسبات نرم

عنوان مقاله [English]

Futures Studies of Iran's Oil Industry Supply Chain with Emphasis on Internal Factors

نویسندگان [English]

Mostafa Mahmoodi Sharif ¹
Mohammad Mehdi Rahimian Asl ²
Mohammad Hassan Maleki ¹

¹ Department of Industrial Management, Faqulty of Management and Economic, Qom University, Qom, Iran.

² Institute for Management and Planning Studies (Affiliated to presidency), Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper, Futures Studies of Iran's Oil Industry Supply Chain with Emphasis on Internal Factors. Supply chain plays an important role in the efficiency of providing products and services. This category is becoming more important in the oil industry, which is one of the competitive advantages of the country, and its development can create a lot of currency and employment for the country's economy.
Methodology: The present research is applied in terms of orientation and exploratory in terms of purpose. Also, the philosophical foundations of research, pragmatism and its methodology are mixed. To conduct the research in the first stage, by reviewing the literature and interviewing oil industry experts, 16 key drivers of the research were extracted. After screening, 8 factors were removed by statistical tests and the rest of the factors were evaluated by Cross Impact Analysis technique.
Findings: Based on the degree of effectiveness, the two drivers of government financing policies and oil companies' plans to improve and upgrade oil equipment were selected as important drivers for mapping oil industry supply chain scenarios.
Originality/Value: Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of opportunistic supply chain, resource-oriented supply chain, new supply chain and old supply chain were mapped. According to the four criteria for evaluating scenarios in terms of probability of occurrence and application of CODAS technique, the opportunistic supply chain scenario was selected as the most probable scenario.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Future study
Internal faktors
Oil supply chain
Cross impact analysis
Soft systems methodology
CODAS

مراجع

Ahmadi, L., Kannangara, M., & Bensebaa, F. (2020). Cost-effectiveness of small scale biomass supply chain and bioenergy production systems in carbon credit markets: a life cycle perspective. Sustainable energy technologies and assessments, 37, 100627.

Alizadeh, R., Lund, P. D., Beynaghi, A., Abolghasemi, M., & Maknoon, R. (2016). An integrated scenario-based robust planning approach for foresight and strategic management with application to energy industry. Technological forecasting and social change, 104, 162-171.

Alvial-Palavicino, C., & Opazo-Bunster, J. (2018). Looking back to go forward? the interplay between long-term futures and political expectations in sustainability transitions in Chile. Futures, 104, 61-74.

Amiri, H., & Nilipour Tabatabaei, S. A. (2020). Uncertainties and future scenarios of Iran’s crude oil and its economic implications for 2035 Horizon. Iran future studies, 5(2), 255-281. (In Persian). DOI: 10.30479/jfs.2021.14561.1250

Attia, A. M., Ghaithan, A. M., & Duffuaa, S. O. (2019). A multi-objective optimization model for tactical planning of upstream oil & gas supply chains. Computers & chemical engineering, 128, 216-227.

Becerra-Fernandez, M., Cosenz, F., & Dyner, I. (2020). Modeling the natural gas supply chain for sustainable growth policy. Energy, 205, 118018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118018

Chen, X., Wang, X., & Zhou, M. (2019). Firms’ green R&D cooperation behaviour in a supply chain: technological spillover, power and coordination. International journal of production economics, 218, 118-134.

Chima, C. M. (2007). Supply-chain management issues in the oil and gas industry. Journal of business & economics research (JBER), 5(6), 27-36.

Etemadi, A., & Kasraei, A. (2020). Designing lean supply chain framework in the offshore sector of the oil and gas industry with a sustainable development approach. Journal of environmental science and technology, 22(5), 313-326. (In Persian). DOI: 10.22034/JEST.2021.40876.4509

Fernando, M., & Sigera, I. (2021, July). Assessing the oil supply chain risk in Sri Lankan petroleum industry. 2021 moratuwa engineering research conference (MERCon) (pp. 374-379). IEEE.

Ghasempoor Anaraki, M., Vladislav, D. S., Karbasian, M., Osintsev, N., & Nozick, V. (2021). Evaluation and selection of supplier in supply chain with fuzzy analytical network process approach. Journal of fuzzy extension and applications, 2(1), 69-88. (In Persian). DOI: 10.22105/jfea.2021.274734.1078

Godet, M. (2008). Strategic foresight: for corporate and
regional development. Retrieved from http://www.laprospective.fr/dyn/traductions/2dunod-unesco-strategic-foresight-ext-veng.pdf

Hossain, N. U. I., Jaradat, R., Marufuzzaman, M., Buchanan, R., & Rianudo, C. (2019, April). Assessing and enhancing oil and gas supply chain resilience: a Bayesian network based approach. IIE annual conference, proceedings (pp. 241-246). Institute of Industrial and Systems Engineers (IISE).

Hosseini, M. (2016). Products’ supply planning and policy making in oil industry. Science and technology policy letters, 6(2), 87-100.

Inkpen, A. C., & Moffett, M. H. (2011). The global oil & gas industry: management, strategy & finance. PennWell Crop.

Jamali, G., & Fallah, M. (2017). Agility of the Supply chain in the businesses that technically support the Iranian oil and petrochemical industries. Journal of business administration researches, 9(17), 31-53. (In Persian). DOI: 10.29252/BAR.9.17.31

Keshavarz Ghorabaee, M., Zavadskas, E. K., Turskis, Z., & Antucheviciene, J. (2016). A new combinative distance-based assessment (CODAS) method for multi-criteria decision-making. Economic computation & economic cybernetics studies & research, 50(3), 24-44.

Keyghobadi, A. (2021). Explain a model for evaluating supply chain sustainability in the oil and gas industry based on the structural equation model. Journal of human capital empowerment, 4(2), 129-146. (In Persian). https://jhce.iaurasht.ac.ir/article_683586.html?lang=en

Lima, C., Relvas, S., & Barbosa-Póvoa, A. (2022). A graph modeling framework to design and plan the downstream oil supply chain. International transactions in operational research, 29(3), 1502-1519.

Mansory, A., Nasiri, A., & Mohammadi, N. (2021). Proposing an integrated model for evaluation of green and resilient suppliers by path analysis, SWARA and TOPSIS. Journal of applied research on industrial engineering, 8(2), 129-149.

Menhat, M., Jeevan, J., Zaideen, I. M. M., & Yusuf, Y. (2019, July). Challenges in managing oil and gas supply chain-An exploratory study. Proceedings of the international conference on industrial engineering and operations management (Vol. 52, pp. 884-892). IEOM Society International.

Nozari, H., Fallah, M., & Szmelter-Jarosz, A. (2021). A conceptual framework of green smart IoT-based supply chain management. International journal of research in industrial engineering, 10(1), 22-34.

Obeidat, S. M., Al Bakri, A. A., & Elbanna, S. (2020). Leveraging “green” human resource practices to enable environmental and organizational performance: Evidence from the Qatari oil and gas industry. Journal of business ethics, 164(2), 371-388.

Papi, A., Pishvaee, M., Jabbarzadeh, A., & Ghaderi, S. F. (2018). Robust optimal crude oil supply chain planning and oilfield development under uncertainty: case study of the national Iranian South Oil company. Quarterly energy economics review, 14(58), 27-64. (In Persian). http://iiesj.ir/article-1-1008-en.html

Pelzer, P., & Versteeg, W. (2019). Imagination for change: the post-fossil city contest. Futures, 108, 12-26.

Pettit, T. J., Croxton, K. L., & Fiksel, J. (2013). Ensuring supply chain resilience: development and implementation of an assessment tool. Journal of business logistics, 34(1), 46-76.

Rezaei, R. (2021). Develop and select a strategy for interaction with stakeholders during the project life cycle in oil projects. Innovation management and operational strategies, 1(4), 347-362. (In Persian). DOI: 10.22105/IMOS.2021.271903.1028

Suicheng, L., & Ting, Y. (2009). Study on the Effect of Knowledge Sharing and Organizational Learning on R&D Cooperative Performance in Supply Chain [J]. Science & Technology Progress and Policy, 10.

Tukamuhabwa, B. R., Stevenson, M., Busby, J., & Zorzini, M. (2015). Supply chain resilience: definition, review and theoretical foundations for further study. International journal of production research, 53(18), 5592-5623.

Yuan, M., Zhang, H., Wang, B., Shen, R., Long, Y., & Liang, Y. (2019). Future scenario of China's downstream oil supply chain: an energy, economy and environment analysis for impacts of pipeline network reform. Journal of cleaner production, 232, 1513-1528.

Zarghami Fard, M., & Azar, A. (2015). An analysis of cognitive mapping method in the qualitative data structuring of organizational studies. Organizational behaviour studies quarterly, 3(1 & 2), 159-185. (In Persian). http://obs.sinaweb.net/article_12434.html?lang=en

Zhu, T., Balakrishnan, J., & da Silveira, G. J. (2020). Bullwhip effect in the oil and gas supply chain: a multiple-case study. International journal of production economics, 224, 107548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2019.107548

تصمیم گیری و تحقیق در عملیات

آینده‌پژوهی زنجیره تأمین صنعت نفت ایران با تأکید بر عوامل داخلی

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 7، شماره 2
مرداد 1401
صفحه 240-258

آینده‌پژوهی زنجیره تأمین صنعت نفت ایران با تأکید بر عوامل داخلی

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 7، شماره 2مرداد 1401صفحه 240-258

دوره 7، شماره 2
مرداد 1401
صفحه 240-258